Assessing geopolitical risks for a global retailer’s operations

A global retail company with significant operations in Europe, China, and throughout the rest of Asia sought to understand how shifting geopolitical developments might impact its commercial relationships and business prospects in these regions. The company needed to assess potential risks arising from changes in the political and economic environment, particularly concerning China’s evolving relationships with the U.S. and EU. The challenge was to provide the company with a strategic framework for anticipating and mitigating risks associated with these geopolitical changes, while also ensuring that the company’s operations in these key regions remained resilient and adaptable.

• Conducted extensive interviews with the company’s C-suite and senior executives in China, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific to gain insights into key concerns and regional views on potential business impacts.
• Collaborated with the CEO and senior leadership to develop a detailed assessment of business risks arising from the shifting geopolitical environment, focusing on economic and policy developments within China that were relevant to the company’s interests.
• Analyzed the state of China’s relationships with the U.S. and EU, identifying potential economic, policy, and regulatory risks that could affect the company’s operations in these markets.
• Conducted scenario planning to evaluate the likelihood of the most pressing geopolitical risks and their potential impact on the company, considering key variables such as U.S. domestic political outcomes.
• Briefed the Board of Directors, offering a comprehensive and actionable assessment of the geopolitical risks the company faced, as well as signposts to monitor over time.

Our recommendations provided the company with multiple options to mitigate risks and informed the development of a forward-looking strategic vision for its operations in China and beyond. As a result, the company is now better positioned to navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape and safeguard its commercial relationships in China, Europe, and Asia, enabling more informed decision-making and greater operational resilience in these critical markets.